Euroranking – a hobby project for math and European Cup enthusiasts
Euroranking is an independent, hobbyist analytical platform born out of a passion for European football and statistics. The website focuses on analyzing official UEFA rankings, tracking qualification scenarios, and modeling qualification paths and calculating statistical projections for European club tournaments. Here, you will find a regularly updated country and club ranking, a projected allocation of spots for future editions of the UEFA Champions League, Europa League, and Conference League, as well as detailed, custom analyses of individual teams.
Data for the major competitions is updated continuously after each domestic and European matchday. However, the heart of this project does not rely on ready-made, automated scripts from third-party platforms. Instead, it is powered by proprietary algorithms and custom calculations that allow you to look at UEFA qualifiers from a purely mathematical perspective.
The website is built upon four core pillars:
Club Performance Statistics in European Cups
Everything starts with numbers. The platform aggregates and organizes historical performance statistics of clubs in European competitions. I analyze head-to-head records against teams from specific countries, as well as how individual clubs perform during decisive phases of the tournaments. This creates a rich knowledge base for drawing conclusions about a club's European pedigree and experience.
Current Seeding in the Qualifiers
Domestic league situations dynamically shape how the summer qualification rounds will look. Based on collected data, the platform generates live tables and projected spot allocations, while a proprietary algorithm continuously updates the projected seedings for the UEFA qualifiers. At any point in the season, you can check whether a specific club will start its campaign as a seeded team (theoretically facing an easier opponent) or an unseeded one. The system also accounts for complex rebalancing on the access lists, such as shifts caused by defending titleholders.
Proprietary Club Power Ranking
The official UEFA club coefficient has one major flaw: it reflects results over the last 5 years, which often fails to capture a team's actual form "here and now." To fix this, I created a custom club power ranking. The algorithm factors in a team's recent form, the strength of their domestic league, and their latest performances on the international stage. As a result, this ranking provides a much more accurate reflection of a team's true sporting potential at any given moment.
Qualification Simulator and Probability Calculations
The most exciting feature of the project is the custom qualification simulator. For every qualifying round—incorporating official seeding rules and UEFA's geopolitical restrictions—I run 100,000 statistical simulations using the Monte Carlo method. If the official UEFA draw has not taken place yet, the algorithm first simulates the pairing of teams, and then determines the mathematically projected outcome of the two-legged tie.
Crucially, the simulator does not draw results blindly. The probability of winning a tie is calculated based on a mathematical comparison of ratings from my Power Ranking. This allows the system to generate highly realistic, percentage-based statistical probabilities for:
- Advancing to the next round,
- The potential qualification path (who a team might face in later stages),
- Reaching the league phase and being assigned to specific seeding pots for the main draw.
Check your club: On each team's individual profile page, you can analyze a comprehensive list of potential opponents along with precise, percentage-based advancement probabilities for every upcoming round.
Preview the Next Season's Future
At any point during the season, you can "step into the future." By utilizing live league tables from all over Europe, you can run calculations on the platform showing what the qualifiers for the upcoming season might look like. This allows you to discover potential rivals, seeding structures, and mathematical qualification projections for your club long before the domestic campaigns even cross the finish line.